MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99a4c059117c3ce236d6e00b44a8a94ba876a25cb79620f1be790eacb349aa92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 41c | 779$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.39 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 7c | 507.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 306$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 59c | 294$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.54 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 60c | 281$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 248.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 59c | 127.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 59c | 101.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 58c | 54.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 58c | 39.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 35.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 60c | 28.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 59c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…68f9backed Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 60c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.