MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb69d46d732a6d40dcf6077d6c6c1c5e810d986fe9d4b17ce21b0e3618bcb3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 98,270$51,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,100.53 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 48c | 32,026$15,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,653.52 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 48c | 25,214$12,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,111.26 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 22,484$11,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,876.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 53c | 17,562$9,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,307.97 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 48c | 8,333$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,333.33 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 5,801$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 4,511$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.83 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…d0a2backed Under | 47c | 2,227$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 49c | 1,376$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 48c | 1,318$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.58 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 1,285$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.78 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 48c | 1,043$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.36 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 843.24$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 50c | 696.82$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.82 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 59c | 678$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.55 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 611.06$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 67c | 557.26$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.32 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 390.02$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 48c | 374.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.73 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed Over | 26c | 341.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 302$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 292$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.84 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 291.85$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.68 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 221.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Over | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 48c | 166.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 51c | 159.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Under | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 155$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 51c | 152.16$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Under | 48c | 106$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 48c | 103.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 46c | 101.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 48c | 98.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 48c | 98.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 53c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…2fe4backed Over | 42c | 77.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 49c | 56.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 48c | 52.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 47c | 48.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 52c | 39.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed Over | 26c | 39.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Under | 48c | 35.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 48c | 31.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked Under | 48c | 29.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 53c | 26.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 53c | 22.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked Under | 48c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44be…76b1backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.