Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c0a8bfbed4e4229eb40107b160afc98a6d3ded858729b8172f3d3dcee671c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8681…ef99backed Team Lynx | 25c | 2,947$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.59 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Lynx | 6c | 1,577$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 1,155$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.30per pick | 57cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 1,135$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.47 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 808.63$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.16 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 3c | 553.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Lynx | 7c | 512.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a57ebacked Team Lynx | 22c | 498.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Team Lynx | 22c | 495.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 7c | 344.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 256.69$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Team Lynx | 10c | 206.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…1a30backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 103.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Team Lynx | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Team Lynx | 25c | 69.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 61.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed Team Lynx | 22c | 60.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Team Lynx | 23c | 47.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 44.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 43.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf001…61a5backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 34.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…8803backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 15.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 1,894 | 47.7%903 W · 991 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.