Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7cf3407cc0d848b067888763a30da7e34cd162c520b14a2e7aedf17e39c76f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Lynx | 29c | 2,797$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.12 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed Team Lynx | 37c | 1,208$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.51 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 993.86$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.91 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 967.46$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.85 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 892.23$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.09 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 871.55$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.57 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 40c | 802.36$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.59 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 24c | 582.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b45…1a0abacked Team Lynx | 18c | 546.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 34cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 388.82$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 317.88$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 297.66$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 280.81$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Lynx | 35c | 276.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Lynx | 35c | 275.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx | 23c | 244.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Team Lynx | 24c | 205.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 190.09$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 185.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 181$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 151.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 149$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 23c | 148.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 127.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 122.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 116.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 116$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx | 18c | 99.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cd3fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 86.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 78.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 70.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…52eabacked Team Lynx | 22c | 65.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Team Lynx | 18c | 55.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 51.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Team Lynx | 35c | 45.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 38.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 26.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f0…b6c5backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ANigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.