Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe14d4161e223bf25e91dcb92e5abc3c857ec9135d414831cef54b0f1109862cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 1,960$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.39 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx | 38c | 1,370$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.93 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 49c | 852.99$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.92 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6139backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 827.24$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.48 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Lynx | 37c | 597.63$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.42 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Team Lynx | 43c | 590.38$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.68 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Team Lynx | 41c | 293.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…9805backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 286.01$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 40c | 254.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Lynx | 40c | 243.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 206.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 200.77$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…703ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 150.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Team Lynx | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 141.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 117.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…1321backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 108.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Team Lynx | 44c | 101.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 99.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team Lynx | 28c | 97.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9c…ade0backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 94.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…01d6backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 94.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…c16fbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 94.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…a838backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 64.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…3a39backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c04…2c55backed Team Lynx | 31c | 48.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 46.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 372 | 23.1%86 W · 286 L | -38.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 40.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 56c | 39.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 34.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Lynx | 42c | 33.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 31.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Lynx | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 28.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group ANigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.