Lol · resolved market
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Galions (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e115919cd8e6c2b1c4f2b4d2a7ca992f04a5e8bfb89e80ee5edb1c82d4b747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Galionsof Team Orange Gaming, Galions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Team Orange Gaming | 30c | 1,707$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.27 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Galions | 70c | 1,674$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.11 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Galions | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Team Orange Gaming | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 109 | 34.9%38 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed Team Orange Gaming | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 480 | 35.4%170 W · 310 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Team Orange Gaming | 29c | 321$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Orange Gaming | 7c | 164$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Galions | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Team Orange Gaming | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Team Orange Gaming | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 211 | 46%97 W · 114 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Team Orange Gaming | 30c | 73.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb4…7a49backed Galions | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Galions | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.