Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ee0dcb6accea52a6c49f247b7cc219a6fbd05a39ff7d07c643809c8c99121e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca19…ce30backed Under | 27c | 5,700$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edd…d9cdbacked Under | 27c | 4,800$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…758cbacked Over | 73c | 2,500$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 2,414$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.04 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ff…2f02backed Over | 73c | 2,400$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0485…a99ebacked Over | 73c | 1,950$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…d2cdbacked Over | 73c | 1,350$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…9d90backed Over | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a4…d2dcbacked Over | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 69c | 662.32$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 51c | 656.14$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.34 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 32c | 418.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 396.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 27c | 379.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 37c | 105.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 11c | 105.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 49c | 40.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Over | 70c | 38.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)Portsmouth FC won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.