Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac38d5ef83b1413d5a6b1c1fc39344cc98dc42c51b1e62aad37edd454459b9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portsmouth FCof Watford FC, Portsmouth FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portsmouth FC | 75c | 6,082$4,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.4 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Watford FC | 26c | 5,054$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.98 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Watford FC | 21c | 1,250$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.44 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Portsmouth FC | 71c | 700$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Watford FC | 29c | 600$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.37 | 222 | 29.3%65 W · 157 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Portsmouth FC | 71c | 524$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +13.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc37a…3959backed Watford FC | 30c | 328.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Portsmouth FC | 71c | 252.94$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Watford FC | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Watford FC | 29c | 82.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Watford FC | 23c | 72.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Portsmouth FC | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Watford FC | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8999…21fbbacked Watford FC | 28c | 44.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Portsmouth FC | 71c | 35.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Portsmouth FC | 71c | 17.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)this page
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.