Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Yuto Oki vs Ryuki Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99f498b293bbebed0969ce41417c50328ef6b6977712e6760f71f5fd30e3ac04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ryuki Matsudaof Yuto Oki, Ryuki Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Yuto Oki | 32c | 1,992$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.34 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Ryuki Matsuda | 68c | 1,454$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.34 | 635 | 56.7%360 W · 275 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 69c | 758.26$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.68 | 487 | 56.5%275 W · 212 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 67c | 428.77$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Ryuki Matsuda | 41c | 406.9$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.64 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yuto Oki | 46c | 263.63$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Yuto Oki | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 641 | 47.7%306 W · 335 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Yuto Oki | 58c | 173.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ryuki Matsuda | 56c | 167.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Yuto Oki | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yuto Oki | 17c | 145.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…9d0bbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 69c | 90.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 241 | 59.3%143 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…c4e9backed Yuto Oki | 41c | 88.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Ryuki Matsuda | 80c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 1,131 | 45.4%514 W · 617 L | -34.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ryuki Matsuda | 72c | 65.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Yuto Oki | 28c | 65.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Yuto Oki | 57c | 61.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Ryuki Matsuda | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ryuki Matsuda | 42c | 60.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Ryuki Matsuda | 71c | 59.45$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 464 | 53%246 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yuto Oki | 39c | 51.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Yuto Oki | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Ryuki Matsuda | 42c | 46.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…d4c3backed Yuto Oki | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yuto Oki | 55c | 37.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…10ffbacked Yuto Oki | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Ryuki Matsuda | 42c | 34.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Ryuki Matsuda | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 602 | 41.2%248 W · 354 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…7f9bbacked Yuto Oki | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 68.4%117 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Yuto Oki | 47c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Ryuki Matsuda | 44c | 22.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Yuto Oki | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 73c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Ryuki Matsuda | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 746 | 46.1%344 W · 402 L | -30.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.