Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Navone
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a2469095f30a21dd229f4c95d465a352a6349f28d2f518ce43a2b34ba2dd829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navoneof Ruud, Navone
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Ruud | 79c | 419.75$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.61 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Navone | 52c | 390.53$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.68 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Navone | 33c | 303.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.02 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Ruud | 72c | 179.08$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 1,053 | 40.9%431 W · 622 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Navone | 31c | 168$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.97 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…cc22backed Ruud | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Navone | 62c | 160.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 283 | 72.1%204 W · 79 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Ruud | 67c | 153.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Navone | 41c | 127.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Navone | 21c | 117.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…c249backed Ruud | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked Ruud | 44c | 84.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 268 | 47%126 W · 142 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…9a7fbacked Ruud | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Ruud | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Navone | 43c | 63.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Ruud | 67c | 43.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Navone | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Ruud | 55c | 40.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Ruud | 67c | 34.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…ae38backed Ruud | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Navonethis page
- Casper Ruud vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano NavoneMariano Navone won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5)Navone won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.