Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90efbbcf25363a7a99b514427ffa2ff17af27257134f68ecd8fc4c755d30f825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navoneof Ruud, Navone
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Navone | 40c | 12,512$5,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,474.02 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Ruud | 60c | 12,507$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Navone | 48c | 1,831$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.09 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Navone | 45c | 1,394$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.93 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed Ruud | 55c | 1,162$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.06 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Ruud | 54c | 1,014$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Ruud | 58c | 936.97$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.06 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Ruud | 54c | 917.78$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 940 | 68.1%640 W · 300 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Ruud | 54c | 638.73$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.05 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Ruud | 58c | 594.26$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.93 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Ruud | 55c | 535.07$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.12 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Navone | 45c | 495.71$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked Ruud | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…fbbcbacked Ruud | 59c | 420.09$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 134 | 27.6%37 W · 97 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Navone | 47c | 412$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.36 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Navone | 44c | 407.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.21 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Navone | 47c | 319.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Navone | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Ruud | 52c | 291.92$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 552 | 41.3%228 W · 324 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Ruud | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Navone | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Navone | 45c | 230.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Navone | 47c | 230$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 389 | 52.2%203 W · 186 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Navone | 44c | 229.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.1 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Ruud | 54c | 222$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Navone | 46c | 219.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Ruud | 55c | 210$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Navone | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Ruud | 54c | 185.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Ruud | 52c | 179.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 432 | 42.4%183 W · 249 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Navone | 46c | 172$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Navone | 47c | 162.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Navone | 46c | 161$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Navone | 45c | 159$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Navone | 42c | 159$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed Navone | 44c | 158.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Ruud | 55c | 146.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Navone | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Navone | 43c | 138.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Ruud | 51c | 126.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Ruud | 62c | 120$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Navone | 39c | 115$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Ruud | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Navone | 46c | 101$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…2bb3backed Ruud | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Navone | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Ruud | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…409ebacked Navone | 45c | 96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…82c9backed Navone | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Ruud | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a1d3backed Ruud | 57c | 80.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Ruud | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Navone | 33c | 76.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…4874backed Navone | 42c | 71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…9dcdbacked Ruud | 58c | 67.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…e2b5backed Navone | 42c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…439ebacked Navone | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Ruud | 71c | 61.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…5a4fbacked Navone | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Navone | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Ruud | 56c | 51.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed Navone | 46c | 41.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…789dbacked Navone | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Ruud | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Navone | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Ruud | 52c | 39.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Ruud | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Ruud | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Ruud | 52c | 24.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Ruud | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Navone | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 643 | 58.8%378 W · 265 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Ruud | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Navone (+1.5)this page
- Casper Ruud vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano NavoneMariano Navone won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs NavoneNavone won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.