Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a25a0941d6557dd104100410889c5807e722be5d1c45c41516594ab1341f672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 44c | 11,885$5,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,170.05 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 6,005$3,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.08 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 57c | 722.8$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.81 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 507.54$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.61 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 293.76$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 191$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 20c | 170.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 164$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 58c | 118.93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 48c | 109.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 56c | 86.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 84.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 76c | 74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 51c | 73.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Over | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…a997backed Under | 59c | 61.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Under | 56c | 51.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 57c | 49.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…a2d3backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 55c | 39.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 58c | 18.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC: San Diego FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.