NBA · resolved market
Mavericks vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a6a1543fde707f927e292eab61a8787baa68aea35a4077873efa88fe18e7bcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 3,250$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a3…33dbbacked Under | 53c | 3,250$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,722.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Over | 50c | 2,932$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.13 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 50c | 2,459$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.5 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,514$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…eaadbacked Under | 51c | 447.51$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 36c | 406.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 62c | 96.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x166c…d94bbacked Under | 50c | 20.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mavericks vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Mavericks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Mavericks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Mavericks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Over won
- Mavericks vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.