Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9abc5beaa379f3951511f2b952c55a898c82a86dc4675fe37efb1ac5db75e36b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 416.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 20c | 379.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 75c | 363.93$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 6c | 180.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 176.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 80c | 144.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 16c | 139.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 123.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 107$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 96.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262f…2198backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 41c | 51.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 50.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…12a9backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 20.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 80c | 19.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 53c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 64c | 16.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.