Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b0564208d4c4f170f2872cb2d2187d8a6404254bb5f4c474f4d3691716f4046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 33c | 465.28$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.59 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…484ebacked Yes | 35c | 448.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 53c | 374.61$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.13 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 29c | 363.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.63 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 20c | 202.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.32 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 198.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 48c | 171.32$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 167.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 67c | 166.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 152.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 19c | 117.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…9ccabacked Yes | 46c | 116.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 20c | 110.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 107.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 38c | 106.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 23c | 105.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 20c | 100.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 30c | 99.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 99.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 31c | 98.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…841ebacked No | 69c | 98.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 20c | 96.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 62c | 96.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 20c | 92.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 72c | 92.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 57c | 84.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 39c | 78.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 42c | 75.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 70.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 65.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 64.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 43c | 57.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 56.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 75c | 55.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc07a…4254backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed No | 62c | 49.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 62c | 46.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 45.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…71a0backed Yes | 29c | 44.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 30c | 42.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 26c | 39.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…49d5backed Yes | 29c | 38.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 64c | 37.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…4cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 36.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 35.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 35.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 71c | 32.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 70c | 30.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 74c | 26.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 66c | 25.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 25.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed Yes | 80c | 24.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 70c | 23.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 22.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…8a4dbacked Yes | 61c | 22.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 62c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 21.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 77c | 18.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 59c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 17.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 78c | 14.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.