Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b110bc27282217ee042b2f5db1b3ba7106c66d2b6955baaf27ce1fe356a25a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 5,862$4,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.45 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…58e4backed Yes | 22c | 3,199$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 1,633$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.96 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 1,218$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.83 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 22c | 1,104$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.89 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 4c | 711.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 22c | 699.95$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 22c | 667.54$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.86 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed Yes | 13c | 552$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 79c | 506.41$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 495.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 22c | 461.27$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…1252backed Yes | 23c | 327.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…8405backed Yes | 23c | 304.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 23c | 255.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 77c | 217.75$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 11c | 190.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 170.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…c897backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…a150backed No | 79c | 61.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…2f25backed Yes | 24c | 44.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 42.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…58a9backed No | 79c | 40.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 78c | 36.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ef…647dbacked No | 79c | 32.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 78c | 32.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed No | 78c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 79c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-23?this page
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-01-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.