NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Amur Khabarovsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b31209de693d0de9da5a16aa1a22d3bfc3606ef6a19ed41bc4e06f00aa6bd42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amur Khabarovskof Sibir Novosibirsk, Amur Khabarovsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 64c | 988.99$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.18 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 61c | 919.01$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.41 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed Amur Khabarovsk | 39c | 503$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.83 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Amur Khabarovsk | 38c | 458.92$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.92 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…4afdbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 37c | 272.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 61c | 250$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Amur Khabarovsk | 40c | 249.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Amur Khabarovsk | 37c | 246.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.18 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Amur Khabarovsk | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Amur Khabarovsk | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 36c | 188.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.62 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 62c | 174.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 37c | 159.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 63c | 159$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 39c | 100.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Amur Khabarovsk | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Amur Khabarovsk | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Amur Khabarovsk | 35c | 30.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Amur Khabarovsk | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 63c | 16.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.