Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b466cd661334a9beaa62ff93f7f1fb1f69169bf0cd545c85b9a4fac3910404e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiN Gamingof L1ga Team, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,901 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed paiN Gaming | 61c | 4,693$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.36 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed L1ga Team | 38c | 1,949$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.28 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed paiN Gaming | 59c | 1,684$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.98 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked L1ga Team | 41c | 1,405$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.09 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team | 39c | 914.43$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed L1ga Team | 28c | 831.45$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.62 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed L1ga Team | 38c | 692.64$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.61 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked L1ga Team | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed L1ga Team | 30c | 553.69$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.14 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed L1ga Team | 40c | 500.2$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed L1ga Team | 31c | 472.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 29c | 458.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed L1ga Team | 40c | 390$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed L1ga Team | 26c | 368.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed L1ga Team | 27c | 367.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed L1ga Team | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed paiN Gaming | 75c | 186.4$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked paiN Gaming | 60c | 167.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed L1ga Team | 31c | 155$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed L1ga Team | 28c | 153.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed paiN Gaming | 55c | 133.33$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…63c1backed L1ga Team | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked paiN Gaming | 79c | 117.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed paiN Gaming | 62c | 109.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed L1ga Team | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked L1ga Team | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…41b3backed L1ga Team | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 173 | 23.1%40 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked paiN Gaming | 71c | 87.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked L1ga Team | 19c | 78.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed paiN Gaming | 61c | 74.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked L1ga Team | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked paiN Gaming | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 38c | 31.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3855backed paiN Gaming | 61c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 173 | 37.6%65 W · 108 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed paiN Gaming | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed paiN Gaming | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CCT PlayoffspaiN Gaming won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Game Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)L1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.