TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: L1ga Team vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,920 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team38c6,169$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,852.341,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed paiN Gaming65c2,526$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.4766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a46…ab25backed paiN Gaming66c2,471$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.8912156.2%68 W · 53 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed paiN Gaming61c1,884$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.9546649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming65c1,456$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.082,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed paiN Gaming65c1,383$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9009254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming70c1,383$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.732,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed paiN Gaming63c1,351$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.9652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed L1ga Team31c911.64$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.6751049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed paiN Gaming64c832.38$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.4251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x688e…148dbacked paiN Gaming77c649.14$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed L1ga Team46c544.47$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.371,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed paiN Gaming63c481.08$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.728544.9%128 W · 157 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked paiN Gaming59c423$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.577639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming64c390.46$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.362,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked L1ga Team46c385.68$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.0336654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team36c300$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.1856243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed paiN Gaming16c259.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.217323.1%40 W · 133 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed paiN Gaming63c245.3$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.098035%28 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed paiN Gaming62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12434154.5%186 W · 155 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked paiN Gaming64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12832652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed L1ga Team42c191.56$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0613138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x126a…2e3ebacked paiN Gaming55c187.41$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.421668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked L1ga Team32c168.21$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5824137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x240a…63c1backed L1ga Team39c167.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.691040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed paiN Gaming50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed paiN Gaming57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.51,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked L1ga Team64c146.26$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe539…8c50backed paiN Gaming80c116.47$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked L1ga Team36c103$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5660542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x672d…dbd7backed paiN Gaming51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040047.5%190 W · 210 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed L1ga Team18c97.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8811043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed paiN Gaming72c90$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.122456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee6…0668backed paiN Gaming67c59.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed L1ga Team34c58.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.911,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7d8d…f40dbacked paiN Gaming71c55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1544771.1%318 W · 129 L+27.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed L1ga Team47c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0744645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed paiN Gaming73c32.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.72657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked L1ga Team42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.48056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed paiN Gaming56c29.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.533145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x798e…4df3backed paiN Gaming64c25.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed paiN Gaming73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2565337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed L1ga Team46c23.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf24…1208backed L1ga Team44c23.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.074540%18 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed paiN Gaming59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.818739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed paiN Gaming73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.630250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1676…ab19backed paiN Gaming52c19.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.095545.5%25 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.