MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b4cc48bd6daefc4bb73d68629494d993d27373aff0c60b132c1681dee334006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Philadelphia Phillies, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 1,108$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.81 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 994.75$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 458.49$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.15 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 418.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.93 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 280.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed San Francisco Giants | 76c | 248.16$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 224.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 192.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…68fbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 179.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Philadelphia Phillies | 21c | 136.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 123.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…178abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 98.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 89.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 89.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 80c | 74.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 60.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -17.2wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 53.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 49.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 48.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 43.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…420ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 39.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 30.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.