MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1665bb200f5f3867c3d8e74f1db62d866e3c667ac90ed3f7b3ee252f8c0f46ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Over | 49c | 10,020$4,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.82 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 8,500$4,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,165 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 52c | 2,341$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.66 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.97 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 1,214$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 51c | 922$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.78 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 48c | 708.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.31 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 703.74$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.83 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 51c | 568.34$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.49 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 59c | 487.7$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 279.84$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 51c | 209.65$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 151.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 54c | 107.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 49c | 99.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 79.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 27c | 78.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 60.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Under | 51c | 53.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 52.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…7b4cbacked Over | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 51c | 42.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Over | 48c | 42.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a7…ac65backed Over | 37c | 39.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 51c | 37.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 52c | 36.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 58c | 29.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Under | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 42c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Under | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 49c | 24.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 52c | 20.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.