Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b5e6be42f622ed16052e7b5af00014ce233c441d6ab2ad67e6ceefe5708f457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6664…1891backed No | 74c | 182.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 175.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 160.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 57c | 149.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 141.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 50c | 138.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 68c | 132.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 122.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 61c | 110.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 70c | 105.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 104.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 98.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 35c | 81.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 77.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 51c | 77.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 69.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 66.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 55.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 60c | 55.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 54.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 53.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 52c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…20c9backed Yes | 38c | 52.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 52.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d13…033bbacked Yes | 78c | 50.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 48.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 39c | 47.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 46.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 45.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 45.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 37c | 39.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 30.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 75c | 29.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 28.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 56c | 28.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 55c | 27.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…7852backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…b067backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.