MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b67d253d43893f051b45f821f9919cc1cb97a635678ca0c499b3e5c556d194d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 4,669$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,144.92 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 3,449$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.05 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 1,176$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 662.14$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.34 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 433.62$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 339.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.41 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 292.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 288.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 232.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 200.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 196$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 179.94$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 166.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 162.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 138.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Kansas City Royals | 35c | 90.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 57.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Kansas City Royals | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 46.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Kansas City Royals | 35c | 45.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Kansas City Royals | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 44.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 39.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 35.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…f5a3backed Kansas City Royals | 79c | 35.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Kansas City Royals | 39c | 29.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 29.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 24.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…f180backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 16.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6baa…b85fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.