MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cae4ec7f0e8aac00bf913d5cce678c03d9895b5a8a603bff34dece64cc809a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 6,070$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 68c | 6,012$4,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 66c | 5,946$3,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 5,548$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 27c | 4,350$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.03 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 45c | 2,844$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.85 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Over | 46c | 2,141$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.66 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,019$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.17 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 2,019$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Under | 55c | 1,567$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.94 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 1,381$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.28 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 55c | 1,097$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.46 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Over | 45c | 1,090$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 962.26$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.26 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 55c | 884.56$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.06 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Under | 55c | 530.73$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 54c | 530$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.8 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 54c | 430$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.8 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 402.81$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Over | 48c | 314.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.13 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 272.39$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 47c | 220.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Over | 51c | 190.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 68c | 188.78$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.83 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8af4backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…6c6bbacked Under | 75c | 163.81$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 147.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 145.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e0…5052backed Under | 54c | 136.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 127.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…cf83backed Over | 46c | 117.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…c88bbacked Over | 47c | 112.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…230ebacked Under | 55c | 101.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 54c | 96.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Over | 42c | 83.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked Under | 77c | 79.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…246ebacked Over | 28c | 68.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 72c | 54.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Under | 55c | 51.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Over | 46c | 49.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 25c | 47.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 45c | 46.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 30c | 40.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 77c | 39.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 77c | 39.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 77c | 39.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 77c | 39.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 78c | 39.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 39.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 38.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 62c | 35.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 55c | 30.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 55c | 30.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 28.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 46c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 53c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Under | 58c | 23.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 79c | 23.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 162 | 74.1%120 W · 42 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…5b88backed Under | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 66c | 17.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49d…91a8backed Under | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland GuardiansKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.