Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b7f97ab0eabec6e1651d0c6ac376d95be5042842fa23cb581b64e4ad4612bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 42c | 35,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,299.99 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 58c | 20,000$11,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,600 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 58c | 14,971$8,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,683.03 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…280dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,784$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…a2cabacked No | 57c | 1,779$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 544.66$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.31 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 58c | 490.24$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.37 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 43c | 297$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.88 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…fefebacked Yes | 44c | 263.64$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 23c | 217.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.61 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 45c | 202.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 58c | 171.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 60c | 130.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5e…87d1backed Yes | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 42c | 109$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6738…13eebacked Yes | 42c | 96.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 59c | 89.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 49c | 76.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…60babacked No | 59c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 73c | 65.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 58c | 58.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…e7eebacked Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 57c | 51.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 58c | 49.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…dbe9backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 68cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…14d9backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 59c | 17.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will Universitatea Craiova CS vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw?No won
- Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.