College Football · resolved market
Will Ohio State beat Oregon by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b8a06261574d8c8e308cc733b6cedbb7844e382924c307f31afc2c96a1ab00e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio Stof Ohio St, Oregon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0ff…01c0backed Oregon | 53c | 2,007$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Ohio St | 48c | 995$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.4 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Ohio St | 49c | 707.73$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…1e41backed Ohio St | 46c | 530.06$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Ohio St | 45c | 483.71$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Ohio St | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Ohio St | 51c | 310.2$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Oregon | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Ohio St | 52c | 250.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Oregon | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…35afbacked Oregon | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ohio State beat Oregon by 3 or more points?this page
- Will Ohio State and Oregon combine for 56 or more points?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.