NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Wizards
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9f0de2de00e1786a3c77a83ffd7332351ac5c8848ddd887b5f290de9ec52e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Wizards | 17c | 26,299$4,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,413.16 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Wizards | 17c | 4,300$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.99 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Wizards | 20c | 4,262$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Wizards | 18c | 3,646$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.25 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6964backed Wizards | 7c | 1,928$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 16c | 1,675$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.67 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Wizards | 16c | 1,400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Wizards | 16c | 1,273$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wizards | 20c | 1,182$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Wizards | 17c | 1,174$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 709 | 51.3%364 W · 345 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Wizards | 18c | 1,141$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.13 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…ef89backed Wizards | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Wizards | 17c | 972.74$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 6c | 969.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Wizards | 16c | 908.1$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.3 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…2629backed Wizards | 16c | 897.04$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…65afbacked Grizzlies | 80c | 659$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Wizards | 18c | 584.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…5044backed Wizards | 18c | 514.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…9cb9backed Wizards | 19c | 483.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56dd…5d25backed Wizards | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6459…c926backed Wizards | 16c | 370$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…e94ebacked Grizzlies | 80c | 335$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wizards | 20c | 280$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Wizards | 17c | 272$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Wizards | 18c | 255$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…e09ebacked Grizzlies | 80c | 199.9$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Wizards | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 35.5%39 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d5…41aebacked Wizards | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Wizards | 21c | 120.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cf…abfcbacked Wizards | 17c | 118.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Wizards | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…9d06backed Wizards | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Wizards | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Wizards | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 304 | 40.5%123 W · 181 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…36b0backed Wizards | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…0b82backed Wizards | 18c | 81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9373…eb99backed Wizards | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Wizards | 17c | 72.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…e124backed Wizards | 18c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…16f9backed Wizards | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…df44backed Wizards | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…3e33backed Grizzlies | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.