Asian League · resolved market
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba5763b1bbf6ee6a9a955e7b7d579cb4ca2664bb4772744f035dd9fbea95369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 1,036$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.64 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 18c | 940.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 80c | 628.69$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 67c | 446.42$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 28c | 340.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 36c | 278.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.52 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 158.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 29c | 114.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 85.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Under | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 64c | 35.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 65c | 35.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 65c | 35.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 65c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Under | 69c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 70c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5this page
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.