Asian League · resolved market
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x699392956e8574b0068655f04c86340395da905db9a0a1c83691c96f140376a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 1,707$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.38 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…cdfcbacked Under | 23c | 338.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 49c | 306.71$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 64c | 298.48$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 285$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 76c | 263.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 203$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Over | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…6fd3backed Over | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 34c | 152.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 50c | 100.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Under | 23c | 94.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 37c | 73.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…4394backed Over | 72c | 69.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 22c | 64.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…92d2backed Over | 78c | 42.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 75c | 27.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 76c | 24.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 77c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 75 | 74.7%56 W · 19 L | +13.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5this page
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.