Asian League · resolved market
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a2424ae02003bbb337e656c3987b2b1d12ad9aad7fb9edb5868b6fa5a444ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 50c | 5,799$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 51c | 2,665$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.66 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 2,528$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.25 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 1,770$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.56 | 139 | 56.1%78 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 1,506$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.97 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 53c | 800.36$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.44 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Under | 48c | 742.04$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…ec9ebacked Under | 56c | 641.3$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 579.26$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.63 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 26c | 550.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 53c | 405$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.35 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 348.53$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.11 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 312.46$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 43c | 283.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 42c | 219.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 195$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 46c | 154.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…22f0backed Under | 47c | 117.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 42c | 111.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 106.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 50c | 100.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 49c | 90.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 49c | 83.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 58c | 40.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 47c | 37.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 54c | 37.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 54c | 37.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 36.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 54c | 28.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Over | 43c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Under | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 54c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 59c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Over | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-1.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.