CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: GUESS vs Arch (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ba5a9288a56943ac8f3e6c74b14b9c9a48e608bb6b5411b44ce947749b3797e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GUESSof GUESS, Arch
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Arch | 45c | 298.24$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed GUESS | 56c | 228.08$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked GUESS | 62c | 208.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 2,223 | 47.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L | -5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Arch | 6c | 187$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 896 | 30.7%275 W · 621 L | -64.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Arch | 27c | 175.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 395 | 40.3%159 W · 236 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf186…03a9backed Arch | 38c | 159.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 224 | 52.2%117 W · 107 L | +20.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked GUESS | 59c | 155$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…4f2ebacked GUESS | 67c | 131.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…42a6backed Arch | 36c | 107.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed GUESS | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Arch | 52c | 92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 769 | 33.8%260 W · 509 L | -48.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arch | 50c | 89.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GUESS | 65c | 76.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked GUESS | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arch | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked GUESS | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Arch | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arch | 52c | 28.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked GUESS | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Arch | 61c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Arch | 47c | 21.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…6167backed Arch | 65c | 17.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: GUESS vs Arch (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Group Dthis page
- Counter-Strike: GUESS vs Arch - Map 2 WinnerGUESS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.