Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bbe112135252781dcd18cc13aa840dfeb3eeb3fb46f340e05afbbafdf83da1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 78c | 406.68$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 290.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 38c | 265.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 260.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 253$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 215.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 27c | 208.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 12c | 204.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed No | 9c | 164.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 150.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 146$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 116.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 64c | 109.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 109.17$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 106.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…71bdbacked No | 76c | 102.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 50c | 100.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 17c | 99.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 68c | 98.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 94.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 90.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 81.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 74.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 69c | 72.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 67.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 61.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 60.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 60.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 49.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 76c | 48.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 45.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 41.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 70c | 39.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 77c | 38.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 75c | 37.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 29c | 34.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 73c | 27.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe115…ace9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.