MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf29967139f4203f94e21908809a993f80eff5010ed1f273cb4da66bbba1bb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked No | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Yes | 51c | 2,062$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.16 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 48c | 1,070$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.87 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked No | 52c | 727.48$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.29 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 51c | 655.21$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.34 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 52c | 564.73$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.28 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Yes | 50c | 503.43$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.72 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 50c | 499$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.5 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Yes | 51c | 251.39$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed No | 49c | 211.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Yes | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed No | 49c | 109.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 48c | 89.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Yes | 51c | 85.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 51c | 83.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked No | 53c | 73.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Yes | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b057backed Yes | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Yes | 51c | 39.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…2d80backed Yes | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6970…ef65backed No | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Yes | 50c | 37.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…178abacked Yes | 51c | 32.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…df81backed Yes | 51c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles DodgersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.