Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Mai Hontama vs Maria Timofeeva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c1672f4261a3c134c3a27d71473a8383c92328ec5f94933b4a5a0ba89fed272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hontamaof Hontama, Timofeeva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Timofeeva | 0c | 3,668$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hontama | 36c | 2,054$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.33 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Timofeeva | 68c | 1,724$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Hontama | 32c | 876.18$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.14 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Timofeeva | 51c | 786.66$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Timofeeva | 66c | 722.41$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Hontama | 33c | 562.19$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.21 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Hontama | 45c | 287.81$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.57 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Timofeeva | 28c | 272.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Hontama | 25c | 236$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Timofeeva | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Hontama | 39c | 164.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…9b7dbacked Hontama | 53c | 133.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Hontama | 43c | 106.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Hontama | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Timofeeva | 69c | 99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hontama | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Hontama | 37c | 79.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Hontama | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Hontama | 31c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Hontama | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…68edbacked Timofeeva | 67c | 42.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Timofeeva | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Hontama | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 930 | 48.8%454 W · 476 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Mai Hontama vs Maria Timofeevathis page
- Set Handicap: Timofeeva (-1.5) vs Hontama (+1.5)Hontama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.