Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c552ed2e874f2eafd61d5122fe799e580f97a934a388ed3b292664287ef58b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, PuckChamp
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked PuckChamp | 22c | 1,283$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.62 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed PuckChamp | 44c | 1,176$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.75 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked PuckChamp | 40c | 581.36$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.54 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 542.03$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.7 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Spirit Academy | 69c | 431.95$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.95 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…7442backed PuckChamp | 50c | 379.79$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…2a00backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 337.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 324$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 28c | 285.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked PuckChamp | 30c | 219.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Spirit Academy | 57c | 175.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed PuckChamp | 34c | 173.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…2c2ebacked PuckChamp | 15c | 146.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…7084backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 108.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…7c04backed PuckChamp | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…d83abacked Spirit Academy | 48c | 82.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked PuckChamp | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked PuckChamp | 53c | 56.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…67e6backed PuckChamp | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Spirit Academy | 48c | 43.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy | 60c | 42.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Spirit Academy | 53c | 40.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee22…7054backed PuckChamp | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…dd9abacked Spirit Academy | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…e654backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 33.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…71e0backed Spirit Academy | 44c | 33.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…e4f5backed PuckChamp | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf461…9ef2backed Spirit Academy | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp (BO3) - European Pro League Group ASpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.