Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Maanshan 7 Men: Shu Muto vs Reiya Komagata
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c805b3d83a202546dc39b0d2d55b6d5de1cad34ae5402819deb4cffb0e152db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Reiya Komagataof Shu Muto, Reiya Komagata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Reiya Komagata | 53c | 885.27$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.42 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…13a1backed Shu Muto | 75c | 800$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Reiya Komagata | 47c | 770.41$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.17 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Shu Muto | 51c | 413.16$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.06 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Reiya Komagata | 40c | 371$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.79 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Shu Muto | 40c | 312.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 917 | 54%495 W · 422 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Shu Muto | 51c | 240.86$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Shu Muto | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Reiya Komagata | 60c | 204.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Shu Muto | 52c | 172$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Shu Muto | 48c | 139.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Reiya Komagata | 52c | 137.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.07 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Reiya Komagata | 57c | 129.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Reiya Komagata | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Shu Muto | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…5cdcbacked Shu Muto | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Reiya Komagata | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Shu Muto | 50c | 92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Reiya Komagata | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f98…cb91backed Shu Muto | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed Shu Muto | 59c | 51.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Reiya Komagata | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Shu Muto | 71c | 47.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 215 | 72.6%156 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Reiya Komagata | 49c | 45.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Shu Muto | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Shu Muto | 64c | 41.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Shu Muto | 43c | 34.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 104 | 25%26 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Reiya Komagata | 54c | 34.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Reiya Komagata | 50c | 30.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Shu Muto | 40c | 28.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Shu Muto | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe69c…7f9bbacked Shu Muto | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 68.4%117 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Reiya Komagata | 44c | 24.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912f…b25bbacked Reiya Komagata | 61c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.