Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb66b799671e8e6e59b81f2de4a2a623310fc46593d62a3cdb3f8dcea8212cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Swiatek, Pliskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Swiatek | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 254 | 53.1%135 W · 119 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Swiatek | 80c | 1,230$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.2 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pliskova | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Swiatek | 54c | 817.54$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.07 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Pliskova | 40c | 735.38$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.71 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Pliskova | 45c | 689.02$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.59 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Swiatek | 55c | 640$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Pliskova | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Swiatek | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pliskova | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Pliskova | 45c | 478.01$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.1 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Pliskova | 21c | 474.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…8ff6backed Pliskova | 48c | 423.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.51 | 284 | 37.3%106 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Pliskova | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Pliskova | 49c | 355.67$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.01 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Swiatek | 52c | 317.86$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Swiatek | 51c | 287.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.89 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…1029backed Swiatek | 56c | 212.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.67 | 108 | 59.3%64 W · 44 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…8ceebacked Swiatek | 56c | 205.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pliskova | 44c | 205.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Pliskova | 21c | 123.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…69cabacked Swiatek | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…4575backed Pliskova | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Pliskova | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Swiatek | 52c | 67.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Swiatek | 56c | 53.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 165 | 88.5%146 W · 19 L | +37.7wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Swiatek | 58c | 51.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pliskova | 44c | 49.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Swiatek | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Swiatek | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Pliskova | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5)this page
- Set 2 Winner: Pliskova vs SwiatekSwiatek won
- Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Pliskova vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.