Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd6c036b5e8d88ad0eb516ba58d51cb8da1450875cfe16fd33efb1f8924361b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 51c | 31,397$16,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,081.87 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 49c | 19,453$9,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,921.88 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 3,018$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.37 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…62c5backed Under | 48c | 1,444$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 49c | 991.25$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.54 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 990.03$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.25 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 536.08$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.91 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 50c | 513.66$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.83 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 52c | 459.67$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 404.43$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.26 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 49c | 350$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 50c | 251.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.89 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Under | 51c | 200.31$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 49c | 148.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 50c | 125.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Under | 49c | 101.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 67.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 50c | 62.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under | 50c | 56.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Under | 50c | 54.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 49c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 148.5this page
- Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State BulldogsBoise State Broncos won
- Boise State Broncos vs. Fresno State Bulldogs: O/U 149.5Under won
- Spread: Boise State Broncos (-7.5)Boise State Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.