Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Sebastian Baez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d0f9449b858487fb62ecfddd309c34e8cecac6c36a08214e809c8be5a43a213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norrieof Norrie, Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Baez | 17c | 4,996$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.84 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Baez | 1c | 4,932$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Baez | 19c | 4,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Baez | 2c | 1,580$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Baez | 21c | 1,400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.01 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Norrie | 79c | 1,233$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.5 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…8009backed Baez | 3c | 1,015$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Baez | 2c | 704.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Baez | 32c | 619.78$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.53 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baez | 20c | 610.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Baez | 7c | 399.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Baez | 26c | 379.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…27cdbacked Baez | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Baez | 18c | 306.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Baez | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Baez | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…7fe2backed Norrie | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Norrie | 79c | 106.03$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Baez | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Baez | 10c | 101.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Norrie | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…e4e3backed Baez | 21c | 93.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Baez | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Baez | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Baez | 18c | 79.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Norrie | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Baez | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…5213backed Norrie | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Norrie | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…285abacked Norrie | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.