South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d253d18af30cb23b26de2ad691fc0afa77091101e5dceed8a18c33e1023c4a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mirassol FCof SE Palmeiras, Mirassol FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,938 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed SE Palmeiras | 34c | 7,500$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mirassol FC | 68c | 3,211$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.05 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 2,039$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mirassol FC | 66c | 1,212$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.83 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked SE Palmeiras | 26c | 902.87$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.34 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Mirassol FC | 62c | 332$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.01 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed SE Palmeiras | 40c | 314$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed SE Palmeiras | 29c | 170.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed SE Palmeiras | 33c | 113.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed SE Palmeiras | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…7bd6backed Mirassol FC | 76c | 98.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked SE Palmeiras | 34c | 85.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Mirassol FC | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Mirassol FC | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…88dbbacked Mirassol FC | 68c | 59.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed SE Palmeiras | 34c | 57.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 55.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mirassol FC | 74c | 52.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mirassol FC | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 40.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Mirassol FC | 68c | 34.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked SE Palmeiras | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Mirassol FC | 75c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 30.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed SE Palmeiras | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Mirassol FC | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Mirassol FC | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Mirassol FC | 56c | 28.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Mirassol FC | 69c | 27.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Mirassol FC | 66c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mirassol FC | 74c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Mirassol FC | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Mirassol FC | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Mirassol FC | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5)this page
- SE Palmeiras vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- SE Palmeiras vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SE Palmeiras (-2.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.