Champions League · resolved market
Will Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d45883f39faed7ac68c9116451e1bc1b1d914c9c6f1c0f696f830831e3c6a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc12…8093backed Yes | 13c | 7,692$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 5,147$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.02 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,869$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,584$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,139$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 200 | 42.5%85 W · 115 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…0791backed Yes | 9c | 1,060$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…4dbebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…ef36backed Yes | 3c | 857.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 849.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 397 | 43.3%172 W · 225 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…307bbacked Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…a45cbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…3282backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97c…f20abacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…3520backed Yes | 13c | 376.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0ababacked Yes | 12c | 274.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 12c | 208.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 139 | 31.7%44 W · 95 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5b…6354backed Yes | 13c | 184.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 8c | 172.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…16d1backed Yes | 13c | 161.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40c…343fbacked Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…ec2ebacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…ed40backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 13c | 153.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 12c | 149.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…69c5backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…f74fbacked Yes | 13c | 117.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…28b4backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa243…6080backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…969ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…ffe7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…34e9backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Yes | 13c | 91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…2151backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…fb23backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?this page
- Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-28?No won
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.