Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d815f2d6385ef646a52d662dedaab8b7457e45de2ee135ec52f04b72c96e08c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,167 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a60…44adbacked Yes | 1c | 2,071$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…bf4bbacked Yes | 27c | 400.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 390.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…e278backed Yes | 5c | 359.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 355.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 252.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 250.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 6c | 248.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 243.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 10c | 231.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked Yes | 5c | 214.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 8c | 200.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 7c | 163.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 7c | 139.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 8c | 135.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…4107backed Yes | 9c | 128.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +98%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 12c | 93.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…efd3backed Yes | 13c | 93.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 11c | 88.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 13c | 86.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 18c | 80.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 17c | 74.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 24c | 72.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 15c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 42.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 78c | 20.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.