Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d1e5d1363d99748052362a198a79e34be8711817ddcd4cc12a1f35ae4342df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,433 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef6d…b0cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,021$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 35c | 514.1$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.25 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 46c | 437.03$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 418.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 34c | 281.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 67c | 257$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 71c | 209.39$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…fdd3backed No | 60c | 199.51$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 11c | 163$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 152.1$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 150.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 147.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 69c | 144.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 121.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 118$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 112$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 23c | 110.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 109.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 65c | 100.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…4107backed Yes | 39c | 98.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +98%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 96.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 69c | 95.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 88.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 27c | 74.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 37c | 73.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 72.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 71.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 33c | 70.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…498abacked Yes | 43c | 69.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 68.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 66.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 49c | 63.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 30c | 59.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 58.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 54.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 76c | 51.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 50.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 59c | 49.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 31c | 49.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 37c | 46.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 34c | 44.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 73c | 41.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed No | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 35c | 39.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 45c | 39.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 34c | 38.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 37.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 58c | 37.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 37.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 37.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 37c | 36.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 50c | 35.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 36c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 44c | 32.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 43c | 31.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…4492backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 62c | 30.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 35c | 30.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 43c | 29.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 25.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 51c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 50c | 24.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 20.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…acb2backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 66c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.