Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc83481f5b1855c15082ee22d50ca19f20c69c3c09da7c6b2b4f02ec499c92bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,528 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 4c | 938$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 653.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 70c | 456.91$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 415$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 406.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 38c | 327.42$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.02 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 79c | 326.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 6c | 268.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 16c | 236.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 16c | 235.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 12c | 216.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 35c | 209.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 166.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 6c | 166.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 148.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 67c | 125.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 75c | 122.71$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 117.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…6797backed No | 23c | 114.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf7…46f0backed No | 12c | 114.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 110.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 108$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 106.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 101.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 99.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 23c | 72.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 70.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 65.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 64c | 61.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 34c | 61.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 58.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…c19abacked Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…4107backed Yes | 36c | 51.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +98%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 44c | 45.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 33c | 43.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…4687backed Yes | 40c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…8303backed Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 43c | 34.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 37c | 29.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 27.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 25.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 22.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…3a2abacked No | 68c | 22.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 62c | 20.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed No | 67c | 18.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 70c | 18.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 68c | 18.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 16.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 74c | 14.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.