Tennis · resolved market
Bonn: Pavel Kotov vs Daniel Galan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d9d567e40590c110f9c3ca76b0ebcf09bcf0fb3a3440fb5fd0bc44988c72425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daniel Galanof Pavel Kotov, Daniel Galan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3783…0038backed Pavel Kotov | 18c | 1,116$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pavel Kotov | 22c | 1,018$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.33 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…7a97backed Pavel Kotov | 21c | 958.33$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.21 | 76 | 22.4%17 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…935fbacked Pavel Kotov | 20c | 756.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 173 | 23.7%41 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Daniel Galan | 64c | 723$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.28 | 611 | 52.2%319 W · 292 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Pavel Kotov | 35c | 496.44$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.26 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Pavel Kotov | 36c | 415.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Daniel Galan | 64c | 361.5$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Daniel Galan | 65c | 355.94$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…68bebacked Pavel Kotov | 22c | 341.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Daniel Galan | 75c | 319.64$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Pavel Kotov | 7c | 249.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 331 | 65%215 W · 116 L | +22.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Pavel Kotov | 9c | 247.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…ef4abacked Daniel Galan | 63c | 205.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Pavel Kotov | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pavel Kotov | 19c | 188.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa192…8876backed Pavel Kotov | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Pavel Kotov | 36c | 111.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Daniel Galan | 63c | 103.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Pavel Kotov | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Pavel Kotov | 35c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Daniel Galan | 62c | 73.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 306 | 44.1%135 W · 171 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Daniel Galan | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 335 | 51.9%174 W · 161 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Pavel Kotov | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…79a3backed Pavel Kotov | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Daniel Galan | 63c | 46.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Pavel Kotov | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Daniel Galan | 65c | 38.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Daniel Galan | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 281 | 64.4%181 W · 100 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Daniel Galan | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d6…5892backed Pavel Kotov | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Daniel Galan | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Daniel Galan | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Daniel Galan | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Daniel Galan | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4383…dbddbacked Daniel Galan | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.