Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Arthur Gea
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc0376254a32598ab1b5e222d3b217c50f4a2aac3bc4fcca06638dfbbb91b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arthur Geaof Raul Brancaccio, Arthur Gea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Arthur Gea | 77c | 1,302$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.68 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Raul Brancaccio | 22c | 954.53$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.41 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…344dbacked Arthur Gea | 77c | 913.13$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Raul Brancaccio | 6c | 822.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Raul Brancaccio | 2c | 777.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 660$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…67babacked Raul Brancaccio | 2c | 639.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0374…1782backed Raul Brancaccio | 22c | 427.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.14 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Raul Brancaccio | 6c | 379.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Arthur Gea | 75c | 264.95$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 249.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Raul Brancaccio | 19c | 220.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arthur Gea | 78c | 173.23$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Arthur Gea | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 439 | 52.4%230 W · 209 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Raul Brancaccio | 22c | 147.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 133$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Raul Brancaccio | 25c | 132.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Raul Brancaccio | 16c | 124.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Raul Brancaccio | 22c | 123$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Raul Brancaccio | 29c | 113.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Arthur Gea | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Raul Brancaccio | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Arthur Gea | 75c | 74.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,626 | 52.7%857 W · 769 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Raul Brancaccio | 23c | 71.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Raul Brancaccio | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 304 | 36.8%112 W · 192 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Raul Brancaccio | 22c | 62.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Arthur Gea | 72c | 56.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 523 | 55.6%291 W · 232 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…ad33backed Raul Brancaccio | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 253 | 36.4%92 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…7aa3backed Raul Brancaccio | 30c | 40.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…2f08backed Arthur Gea | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Arthur Gea | 75c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Arthur Gea | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…67e6backed Arthur Gea | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 372 | 55.6%207 W · 165 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.