Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9de4d06ca65fa9dd32be9179166f6b923d87e96ce5c1705243edbe6f385a05a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 22c | 795.89$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 57c | 513.75$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.47 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c6…4d3fbacked Yes | 53c | 188.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 180.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118c…74c5backed Yes | 67c | 168.61$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 40c | 158.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 10c | 149.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…b78abacked Yes | 37c | 143.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 41c | 121.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 97.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…ea43backed Yes | 11c | 96.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 51c | 89.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 40c | 86.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 62c | 80.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 77.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 63.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…af3ebacked Yes | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…1829backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 37.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…cc46backed Yes | 53c | 36.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 58c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 61c | 34.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23a9…64f3backed Yes | 38c | 33.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed No | 55c | 30.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…4e6abacked No | 68c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…38a4backed Yes | 55c | 21.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…8fe9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 70c | 16.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -10°C or below on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C or higher on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C on January 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -7°C on January 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -8°C on January 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.