AI · resolved market
Will Qualcomm acquire Intel?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e0e6aa9fd8ff1ecf7bb242118abbab2343232b023a8c671e4d70df8774e7f71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 2c | 2,937$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 13c | 2,377$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,821$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…492abacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 14c | 1,452$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 11c | 1,018$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa339…69f3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…0bbbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…8bf2backed Yes | 3c | 999.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 14c | 849.65$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8559…abd8backed Yes | 7c | 759.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c3…5227backed Yes | 3c | 703.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 7c | 595.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb43…b10abacked Yes | 4c | 494.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c594backed Yes | 10c | 479.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…24fdbacked Yes | 3c | 414.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…fa3dbacked Yes | 37c | 310$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 8c | 305.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6816…b693backed Yes | 11c | 269.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 61c | 260$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…35bebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 10c | 248.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 4c | 240.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…5ef7backed Yes | 11c | 225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 6c | 179.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…08f5backed Yes | 12c | 169.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed Yes | 11c | 165.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45bd…d412backed Yes | 9c | 159$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 139.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1b44backed Yes | 13c | 130.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…f3babacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef9…0295backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked No | 73c | 72.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…f0c2backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca63…9ce7backed No | 67c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.