CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs Kreazion (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e6f906d8193c7d5c0863451a7038ba6572a418e5c318355fc518fe69741d245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, Kreazion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Kreazion | 32c | 1,667$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.34 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed ASTRAL | 68c | 1,410$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.35 | 1,017 | 53.4%543 W · 474 L | +65.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Kreazion | 31c | 950.54$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 317 | 44.8%142 W · 175 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac33…fda0backed ASTRAL | 68c | 799.99$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.4 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…c078backed ASTRAL | 69c | 760.65$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.64 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…4e6abacked ASTRAL | 69c | 758.31$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.16 | 265 | 54.3%144 W · 121 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Kreazion | 32c | 570$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 1,154 | 48.3%557 W · 597 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…2acdbacked ASTRAL | 69c | 549.97$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.49 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked ASTRAL | 68c | 485.31$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.3 | 1,476 | 51.8%765 W · 711 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…dcb1backed ASTRAL | 68c | 477.81$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Kreazion | 30c | 466.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a66…fa83backed Kreazion | 33c | 343.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed Kreazion | 35c | 278.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…afaebacked Kreazion | 34c | 256.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed ASTRAL | 64c | 209$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…a099backed ASTRAL | 70c | 189.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 260 | 46.5%121 W · 139 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Kreazion | 29c | 151.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 384 | 44.3%170 W · 214 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Kreazion | 33c | 150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2,599 | 47.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L | -30.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e299backed Kreazion | 32c | 114.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed ASTRAL | 68c | 106.24$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 607 | 53.9%327 W · 280 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Kreazion | 31c | 100.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,643 | 32.8%539 W · 1,104 L | -48.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kreazion | 28c | 100.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 982 | 48.3%474 W · 508 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed ASTRAL | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 358 | 57.8%207 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…0566backed ASTRAL | 68c | 99.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Kreazion | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Kreazion | 30c | 90.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,828 | 47.6%871 W · 957 L | -54.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…3373backed Kreazion | 29c | 81.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked ASTRAL | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Kreazion | 32c | 72.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 247 | 40.9%101 W · 146 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Kreazion | 33c | 62.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Kreazion | 30c | 60.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked ASTRAL | 72c | 58.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Kreazion | 32c | 55.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +12.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…46eebacked ASTRAL | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed ASTRAL | 72c | 46.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Kreazion | 31c | 45.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 213 | 51.2%109 W · 104 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed ASTRAL | 69c | 44.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…3342backed ASTRAL | 75c | 39.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Kreazion | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 357 | 45.4%162 W · 195 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked ASTRAL | 71c | 33.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…2d86backed ASTRAL | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs Kreazion (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Kreazion vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 1ASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: Kreazion vs ASTRAL - Map 1 WinnerASTRAL won
- Counter-Strike: Kreazion vs ASTRAL - Map 2 WinnerASTRAL won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.