Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e70b6ec2255179bf0d4d284fe5c88ee7fd60fecfc479dd14dc7538182380e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 720.34$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 5c | 689.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 323.16$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 67c | 298.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 15c | 207.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.17 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 196.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 184.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.58 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 166.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…dd6bbacked Yes | 15c | 155.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 154.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.23 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 17c | 149$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 33c | 148.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 44c | 119.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 119.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 63c | 114.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 89.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 80c | 87.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 26c | 81.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 74.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 42.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 47c | 42.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 44c | 40.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 38c | 34.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 38c | 34.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 77c | 31.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 30.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 69c | 28.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 46c | 28.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 79c | 25.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 75c | 16.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.